Speed of climate change poses critical threat

Researchers from University College Cork and the University of Exeter have revealed that the speed at which Earth approaches critical levels of climate change could be just as perilous for our future as actually reaching those levels.

Their recent paper found that adapting to global warming becomes harder when change happens too rapidly, potentially creating new tipping points driven by rapid rates of change. These abrupt shifts can impact our ability to cope with tipping points, triggering them earlier than anticipated. The study breaks from the traditional notion that critical levels are points of no return. Instead, it highlights the dangers of rate-induced tipping, where the rate of approach to a critical level matters more than the level itself. A gradual approach allows ecosystems and human systems to adapt, while a rapid approach risks species survival even before reaching a critical level, creating a ripple effect of new challenges.

Dr Hassan Alkhayuon, joint lead author and from the School of Mathematical Sciences at UCC, explained the universality of rate-induced tipping and offered a relatable example involving England's 1990 World Cup semi-final.

"The phenomenon of rate-induced tipping is not restricted to climate systems. Using mathematical modeling, we observe similar effects in ecosystems and human-made systems. When England played West Germany, the national grid was prepared for a surge in demand at full time. What they didn't prepare for was the game going to extra time, then penalties. So, when the equivalent of one million kettles were turned on all at once, there was a huge surge in demand on the grid and a near miss."

Dr Paul Ritchie, joint lead author from Exeter's Global Systems Institute, underlined the urgent need to address rapid global warming rates: "Whilst the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Assessment Report rightly highlighted the urgency to limit global warming levels, it fell short of identifying the rate of warming as a key risk factor for climate tipping points."

Published in Earth System Dynamics, this study opens up an understanding of the risks of climate change beyond traditional critical levels and stresses the need for a comprehensive approach to prevent these rapid shifts in our environment.