Trump to bring trade war to Ireland?

Donald Trump’s re-election as the 47th President of the United States is not good news for Ireland’s economy, a UCC expert has warned.

After victory in a number of swing states during Tuesday’s election, Mr Trump claimed a victory that would make him the first US president in 132 years to secure two non-consecutive terms.

His monumental victory over former vice president Kamala Harris was confirmed yesterday, Wednesday, when he surpassed 270 electoral college votes by winning the state of Wisconsin. By time of going to print, he remained on course to claim all seven key swing states.

However, Dr Declan Jordan, Senior Lecturer in Economics at UCC, said he can’t see how Mr Trump’s re-election can be good for Ireland.

“If he brings in tariffs and it starts a global trade war, Ireland is right in the middle of the damage that will do,” Dr Jordan told the Cork Independent.

“He's talking about putting a 20% tariff on everything that comes into the US, not just from China, from everywhere.

“We're the third largest exporter in Europe into the US. Anything that starts a trade war is bad for a country like Ireland that relies on free trade,” added Dr Jordan.

Another thing that could prove damaging to Ireland’s economy is the potential global instability that Trump’s re-election could case, continued Dr Jordan.

He said: “What's going to happen with the Russian invasion of Ukraine? What will happen in the Middle East?

“I think he's essentially going to give Ukraine to Russia now, he's going to give Gaza to Israel now, and what effect that has in the Middle East in terms of oil prices?

“I think we'll see a spike now again in oil and commodities and that's going to push up prices again, so I think we're back to an era of barriers to trade, pushing up prices, and instability pushing up energy prices as well,” added Dr Jordan.

Corporate tax is another issue of concern in Ireland, but Dr Jordan said he feels US firms will remain in Ireland.

“In his first term, he talked a lot about bringing jobs back to the States and re-establishing manufacturing in the US but he can't do that,” he added.

“Those are factors beyond the control of the US president,” said Dr Jordan.

On a personal note, Dr Jordan said he feel Trump won’t see out his four year term as president.

He said: “My own personal view is that Trump is only going to last about two years anyway. I think he's obviously cognitively impaired and I think JD Vance has in mind to replace him within two years.”

Lord Mayor of Cork, Cllr Dan Boyle, who was born in the US, said: “A decision has been made. It is a poor decision. It is a wrong decision. But it is a decision the world has to live with and work against to protect all that is good and fair on the planet.”

Global leaders speak

Following confirmation of Mr Trump’s return to the White House, a number of global political leaders offered their congratulations.

Tánaiste Micheál Martin said: “I congratulate President-elect Donald Trump on his election as the 47th president of the United States of America. We look forward to working with him and his new administration in a constructive manner, as we did during his previous administration.”

UK Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer also offered his congratulations in a statement.

He said: “I look forward to working with you in the years ahead. From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”